Eilen ilmestyneen 7-päivää lehden luettuani jäin miettimään, että miten kauan nykyisen kaltainen tilanne asuntomarkkinoilla vielä jatkuu? Ja onko enää koskaan paluuta takaisin ns. ”normaaliin” markkinatilanteeseen? Nyt maaseudulla alle 100 km päässä Helsingistä olevalla uudehkolla talolla ei näytä olevan oikein mitään arvoa?
Yleensä näistä asioista ei paljon julkisuudessa puhuta, mutta Timo T.A. Mikkosen vaimo Nina Mikkonen on nyt kuitenkin päättänyt kertoa omasta tilanteestaan 7-lehden kautta. He muuttavat ensi kesäksi Helsinkiin, tai ainakin vuokra-asunto on jo haussa.
Jos pk-seudun ulkopuolelta olevan 10 vuotta vanhan talon saa (pyyntihinnan mukaan) ostaa jopa vähän reilulla tonnilla per neliö, niin millä hintaa suunnilleen vastaavanlaisen talon saisi sitten pk-seudulta? Vaikkapa Vantaalta? Eipä ne hinnat täälläkään isokokoisissa taloissa paljon päätä huimaa. Tässä eräs kohde www.oikotie.fi -sivuilta, neliöt 271m2 ja hintapyyntö 385000€:
Tilastojen mukaan asuntojen hinnat ovat kuitenkin pk-seudulla (ainakin AsOy -maailmassa) pitäneet tasonsa muuta maata paremmin, näin ainakin www.findikaattori.fi -tilastojen mukaan:
Mutta – jos markkinahinnat putoavat jopa 25 vuoden takaiselle tasolleen – tai ”muualla Suomessa” jopa hiukan sen allekin, ja jos uudehkon talon pystyy ostamaan tänä päivänä talon sijainnista riippuen noin 1200-1400 eurolla per neliö, niin kannattaako enää rakentaa uusia taloja? Ostamalla kun voi päästä talon omistajaksi paljon pienemmällä vaivalla ja vieläpä varsin edulliseen hintaan?
No – ehkä ei rakentaminen näissä oloissa välttämättä kannata? Eikä sen puoleen omakotitaloja enää nykyään niin kovin paljon valmistukaan. Rakentamisen aloituksia on ollut enää noin 6000 – 8000 kpl vuosittain. Näin ainakin Suomi -rakentaa artikkelin mukaan tässä linkissä:
http://www.suomirakentaa.fi/omakotirakentaja/ok-vaihtoehto/asunnon-hankintavaihtoehdot
Saman artikkelin mukaan okt-talojen hinnat pk-seudulla ovat keskimäärin noin 3000€/m2 – ja 1450€/m2 muualla Suomessa. Olisiko muualla Suomessa sitten edullisinta ostaa, jos omakotitalon haluaa? Ilmeisesti kyllä, koska sama Suomi -rakentaa sivusto kertoo, että uuden okt-talon rakentamiskulut ovat noin 1950€/m2. Vanhoissa taloissa saattaa toki olla remonttitarpeita, mutta jos hankintahintakin on keskimäärin noin 500€/m2 edullisempi, niin ostohinnan erotuksella – esim. 170m2 kokoluokan talossa remonttirahaa jää 170m2 x 500€/m2 = 85000€, jos ostaa käytetyn talon, eikä ala rakentamaan uutta. Kyllä tuolla 85 tonnilla tekee jo aika paljon remonttia?
Ja minusta tuo 1950€/m2 on aika tiukka hinta uudellekin talolle? Ei sillä ainakaan kivitaloa rakenna.
Jos itse jätän omassa projektissani tontin ja tonttiliittymien hinnat pois laskuista, niin talon hinnaksi jää noin 400000€, ja se jaettuna 241 neliöllä tekee 1660€ per neliö. Ja talo ei ole vielä edes valmis, vaikka valmiusaste jo onkin meillä nyt 96,1% tällä hetkellä. Näihin lukuihin pääseminen kuitenkin edellytti hyvin paljon oman metsän puutavaran käyttöä ja toisaalta omia työtuntejakin tuli kahteen vuoteen yli 2200 kpl ennen kuin talo oli edes muuttovalmis. Omista tunneista lisää tässä linkissä:
http://talo-rautio.talovertailu.fi/2014/09/25/tuntilaskuri-pysahtyy/
Rakentamisessa pitää olla nyt siis aika huolellinen budjetissa pysymisen kanssa? Nimittäin jos budjetti ylittyy paljon, voi käydä ainakin nykyisessä markkinatilanteessa niin, ettei ehkä koskaan saa hankkeesta ”omiaan pois”, jos talo joskus myydään. Toisaalta nyt kun markkinatilanne on tällainen, niin jos budjetti pettäisi jollain rakentajalla niin pahasti, että oma maksukyky ei enää riitä, niin tässä nykyisessä markkinatilanteessa talo ei välttämättä mene helposti kaupaksi. Ei ainakaan iso talo, joka sijaitsee kaukana kasvukeskuksista. Toisaalta eipä nuo neliöhinnat paljon päätä huimaa Vantaallakaan tällä hetkellä.
Tässä kohtaa ympyrä tavallaan sulkeutuu, jos lopuksi pohditaan ihan samaa mitä pohdiskelin tämän artikkelin alussakin, eli miten kauan tämä nykyisen kaltainen tilanne asuntomarkkinoilla vielä jatkuu? Ja tuleeko enää koskaan paluuta takaisin ns. ”normaaliin” markkinatilanteeseen?
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